This is one of the more revelatory emails floating around.
A "savvy friend" tells Bill Kristol why Barack Obama consistently leads in the swing states, and comes to the conclusion it's not skewed methodology, but probably, effective advertising.
But the real insight is that Mitt Romney is probably overperforming in national polls, relative to swing states, because Obama isn't advertising in non-battleground states, and the bitter fruits of a bad economy are hurting him more there.
The national numbers aren't changing much because Romney is actually gaining in the states that are not being bombarded with media.
Yesterday’s Connecticut poll has Obama by only 8 for example. And red states seem to be getting even redder. This is happening because the daily news is about the economy, Washington problems, etc. and that is the main message getting through. So, polls in these states reflect how voters who only see national news and national advertising (to the degree there is any) respond.
“In the swing states they are being assailed with ads and campaigning, as well as the news. And here Obama seems to be building a bit of a margin. He now is ahead by solid margins in the most recent surveys in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. It's very close in Colorado, and Romney has a slight lead in North Carolina.
“One can draw a lot of different conclusions here—but doesn't it seem likely that the Obama attack on Romney is working where it is deployed in full measure?
I think many analysts have erroneously concluded that because the national tracking has not moved, the Obama attack on Romney's wealth, Bain, taxes, etc. is not effective. The results in these states suggest otherwise.
You're starting to increasingly hear folks floating the possibility that Romney could win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote. It's not likely to happen. But the reverse (Obama winning the popular vote and losing the electoral) is almost inconceivable.
Beyond the advertising blitz, there's another oft-discussed reason for Obama's lead in swing states -- many of them have dropping unemployment rates that are doing better than the national average (e.g. Virginia and Iowa).
When you plug both the ad blitz and swing state economies into the equation, it's much easier to see why Obama is sporting a swing state advantage right now.