Thursday, August 16, 2012

Pennsylvania: Obama up by 6%

A new Franklin & Marshall College Poll shows Mitt Romney gaining on Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, but still trailing by a solid margin, 44%-38%.

Two months ago, Obama led by 12%.

Why is Obama struggling? He has a -13% approval rating, overall, and a miserable -33% rating on the economy.

Why isn't Romney capitalizing? He's got an awful -17% favorable rating.

Key stats:

a. Obama wins on empathy, 57%-30%. His overwhelming lead there is a familiar pattern across the country -- sometimes, even with groups Romney is winning.

b. Romney edges Obama on the economy, 44%-42%. Romney needs a bigger lead there to actually swing the state, and he's moving in the right direction. Two months ago, Obama led by 6% on the economy.

c. What's hurting Romney big-time? His awful favorability rating, which sits at just 32%/49% for -17%. With numbers like that, it's surprising he's as close as he is on voter preference, but also, a sign that with improved fav ratings, he might actually make this thing competitive.

d. Obama is afflicted with awful job approval, 43%/56%, while he gets even worse approval numbers on the economy, 33%/66%, for -33%.