Rasmussen: Romney up 1% in Wisconsin

Rasmussen Reports releases two, new, very timely polls showing Mitt Romney just inches ahead of Barack Obama in both Florida and Wisconsin.

WISCONSIN: Romney 48% Obama 47%

a. That's Romney's best standing in the state in a Rasmussen poll yet, and is a 4% bounce since last month. His favorable rating has improved, as well, and currently sits at 54%/44%. That's much higher than he is across the rest of the country.

b. Ryan might be helping. He's got strong favorables in the state with 57% looking at him favorably and only 36% unfavorably for a net +21% rating.

c. So far, support for Ryan's plan (48%) trumps support for Obama's (42%). If that number holds, look out.

d. Independents back Romney, 46%-43%.

e. Obama's approval rating is 49%/50%. I still think that a 49% approval rating in a blue state should be good enough for the president in Wisconsin, but Romney's 1% lead is more than notable, and he's finally done something new -- expand the playing field.

FLORIDA: Romney 45% Obama 43%

This is the second poll in the past two days to put Romney narrowly ahead in the state, post-Ryan pick (Purple Strategies is the other survey), which means that in the only two surveys, post-Ryan, Romney has led.

And that's despite Obama's 1% lead in the RCP average of Florida polls. So clearly, Ryan hasn't hurt Romney there, so far.

Yesterday, a Purple Strategies poll showed that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Ryan's Medicare plan is actually more popular in Florida than in Virginia, Colorado, or Ohio.

As I wrote yesterday, polls suggest Florida seniors are more conservative than nationwide seniors, so that philosophical bent might buffer Romney in the state more than people think.