Romney's silver lining in Ohio

Barack Obama has the unmistakable advantage in Ohio -- both at this moment in time and throughout this general election.

But pay attention to independents in Ohio.

To make both sides happy, I didn't use Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling surveys of Ohio, and instead, went with the five, most recent polls (spanning July-August), where polling groups released breakdowns of indies.

Romney wins indies 4/5 times in Ohio, even while losing among all voters, 4/5 times.

a. Quinnipiac: Romney leads by 5% among indies, but Obama is ahead, overall, 50%-44%.

b. University of Cincinnati: Romney leads by 12% with indies, but Obama is ahead, overall, 49%-46%.

c. Purple Strategies: Romney leads by 22% with indies, and is ahead, overall, by 2%.

d. Quinnipiac (July): Obama leads by 3% with indies, and is ahead, overall, by 6%.

e. We Ask America (July): Romney leads by 3% with indies, but Obama is ahead, overall, by 8%.

So what's going on?

Well, the most likely explanation is that Reagan Democrats are behaving like Democrats again -- particularly, in the wake of the GOP's disastrous collective bargaining push.

But... with each day that passes, the collective bargaining effort gets further away, and the familiar battle lines that push Reagan Democrats to the GOP side get closer.

So if Romney can start to restore straying Reagan Dems (a big if, considering his aristocratic image) and combine that with these independent numbers, look out.