Survey USA: Romney, Obama tied in Missouri?

Survey USA has a new poll out today, showing Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by a statistically meaningless, 45%-44%, in Missouri.

Before you toss Missouri atop the toss-up state list, keep in mind that this seems to be quite the outlier.

Romney has led by 6%, 9%, 9%, and 7% in the state's previous four polls, and the only polling group to show Obama leading in the past two years is Public Policy Polling in May (and that, by just 1%). PPP is a left-leaning firm that has produced some dramatic outliers favorable to Obama this cycle. So keep that caveat in mind.

And there's a curious internal result in the Survey USA poll -- Romney only leads among evangelicals, 58%-35%. That's his weakest lead I've seen against Obama in any poll this cycle. Obama usually tops out just shy of 20%.

Now, having said that, there's a noticeable difference between the Romney-Obama margin (+1% Romney) and Republican Todd Akin's lead over incumbent Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill (+11%) in the same survey, which suggests that Romney is, in fact, showing relative weakness in the state compared to other Republican candidates.

That relatively severe disparity isn't enough to say Missouri is in play, just that it's something to keep in the back of your mind.