The Detroit News reports on the sound of sudden silence in one borderline battleground (Michigan) and one strong lean-Obama (Pennsylvania).
Mitt Romney's conservative allies are bypassing Michigan with their advertising while stepping up efforts in other battleground states — suggesting campaign strategists don't believe his road to the White House leads through his native state.
The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.
There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to the Associated Press.
Democratic strategist, Jill Alper, gives the Detroit News a couple good theories on the Michigan drop.
"It's either that Michigan is not a targeted state for them and they want to use that money to make a difference in closer states, or they're waiting to see what kind of bounce Obama gets out of the convention before committing to spending more broadly."
Obama only leads Romney by 2.4% in the current RCP average of Michigan polls, but Nate Silver recently wrote a good piece casting doubt on Romney's fairly strong showings in the state.
Basically, there's some weird weighting and questionable assumptions going on in the Michigan polls showing Romney performing strongly.
Perhaps 90 or 95 percent of the time, taking a simple average of the polls will work just about as well as the more complicated FiveThirtyEight method. But this is rare instance where taking all the polls at face value may be a mistake, and the additional checks-and-balances the FiveThirtyEight method applies are worth the trouble.
