Friday, September 28, 2012
A few more polls to wind down your afternoon, courtesy of American Research Group.
VIRGINIA: Obama 49% Romney 47%.
Here are the key stats.
a. Both candidates get +90% with their bases, but Obama actually leads with independents. That's something you rarely saw before the Democratic convention, but are now seeing a bit more regularly.
b. Gender gap is massive, but it cuts both ways. Men pick Romney by 15%; women back Obama by 18%.
c. Romney wins by 56%-40% with whites, Obama cleans up with non-whites.
Critics of recent polling (and I'm one) have slammed sampling that suggests Democratic turnout in 2012 will be similar to or even greater than Dem turnout in 2008.
Well, this poll should assuage those critics -- the sample is +3% Democrat; whereas, turnout in 2008 was +6% Democratic.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50% Romney 45%.
Some key stats for you.
a. Once again, polarization is intense, as both candidates corral 90%+ of their parties, but the president leads with indies, 51%-42%. That bloc is crucial in New Hampshire, particularly.
b. Gender gap persists. Men back Romney by 7%; women back Obama by 17%.
The sampling is a trite more friendly to Republicans than in 2008. ARG has equal numbers of Dems and Republicans; whereas, Dems enjoyed a +2% on Republicans in 2008 turnout.
OVERALL: Romney can afford to lose New Hampshire, but Virginia is tough to compensate for. Back in May, though, I wrote how he could lose Virginia and still win the election -- flip Wisconsin and Iowa. That's a total of 16 electoral votes, which is three more than Virginia's 13.
But by my troth, if Romney won Wisconsin and Iowa, it would likely be part of a wave, and Virginia would probably get swept up in it, too.
[Photo: White House/Pete Souza]