A new Mclaughlin & Associates poll shows Mitt Romney holding a 50%-47% lead over Barack Obama in Florida.
The internals of the AIF poll have good and bad news for Obama. On the good side, Obama is tied among independents (46-46%) in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 450,000 active registered voters.
On the bad side, Obama does worse among Democrats (14 percent would vote for Romney) than Romney does among Republicans (9 percent would vote for Obama).
Speaking of voter registration, a few months ago, I tracked down some registration stats in the key Florida counties, and things looked good for Romney in some of the most important counties.
In Hillsborough County, Democrats have lost 16,000 registered voters since 2008, while Republicans have lost just 1,000.
In Duval County, Democrats have lost 18,000 since 2008, while Republicans have gained 2,000.
In Leon County, Democrats have lost 10,000 since 2008, while Republicans have gained 15,000.
Meanwhile, in Democratic bastions like Miami-Dade and Orange County, the numbers are roughly equal for both parties (although Dems have a +5,000 gain over GOP since 2008).
Those shifting registration stats are a big factor behind the conventional wisdom suggesting Romney will take the state.