Thursday, September 20, 2012
This is a very rough poll for Mitt Romney, via Fox News.
The pollster has Barack Obama leading him, 49%-42%, in the piece de resistance of battleground states -- Ohio.
Let's get into some key stats:
a. Obama's approval rating is 50%/46%. That shows that Romney has some room to grow (he only picks up 42% in the horserace and, theoretically, should get something more in the 46% region).
But still, that's a winnable approval rating for the president.
One warning sign for the president? Indies give him a -10% approval rating.
b. As usual, Romney wins with independents , 42%-38%. This has been one of the most consistent, least-reported phenomenons this cycle -- Romney tends to take indies even when he loses in polls, overall.
c. Huge gender gap. Men pick Romney by 10%, but women support Obama by a massive 23% margin.
d. The candidates are very close in every age group, except among the young whipper-snappers, who per usual, favor Obama by 39% over Romney.
e. Union voters back Obama by 16%, while non union households ALSO prefer Obama, 48%-44%. Romney needs to reverse that last result substantially to win.
f. Once again, marriage is a reliable political indicator. If you're married in Ohio, you back Romney by 9%. If you're single, you support Obama by 34%.
g. Here's the part where Romney is in a heap of trouble. Obama wins on the economy and jobs, 50%-43%. If Romney isn't going to win there, he's not going to win anywhere (notably, though, indies favor Romney by 4% on the question).
Familiar divides emerge. Married folks think Romney will do better on jobs and the economy; those not bound in holy matrimony pick Obama by 32% on the issue.
h. As usual, Obama has a solid 53%-40% on foreign policy, and Obama also does better on protecting the U.S. from terrorist attacks.
i. Obama wins on Medicare, 53%-39%.
j. Obama's favorable rating is 55%/42%, while Romney's is 45%/50%. That's a massive 18% gap between the two.
in 2008, Dems had a +8% turnout advantage), and the survey measures likely voters. This is a very troubling poll for the Romney campaign. A bit later today, I'll revisit some ways Romney could get to 270 without Ohio.