Thursday, September 13, 2012

Fox News poll: Romney struggles on fundamentals

I'm late to this, but Fox News polls are always teeming with interesting internals.

So set aside the 48%-43% Obama lead among likely voters for a second, and take a look at his performance among some key blocs.

a. Independents now back him, 44%-39%, over Romney. Indies have traditionally been a source of strength for Romney.

Part of Obama's advantage there can probably be explained by his favorable ratings with the bloc. Obama currently sits at +10%, while Romney is at -5%.

Race is playing a huge part in that gap. Romney's favorability rating with whites is +17%, while Obama's is -7%, but of course, non-whites like Obama better by much bigger margins.

b. Women support Obama, 53%-39%, over Romney, while men back Romney by just 6%. Before the conventions, Romney was doing much better with men.

c. Romney wins the white vote, 52%-40%. While that's a double-digit lead, he'll probably need over 60% to overcome Obama's massive lead with non-whites. That means he needs to scoop up nearly all undecided whites.

d. Obama's approval rating is 50%/47%, but take a look at his approval rating with independents: 47%-47%. That's much healthier than it's been in the past.

The question is: how much of that is due to gushing coverage of the Democratic convention, considering that independents are likely to be especially susceptible to gushing?

Once again, the racial gap is huge. Obama's approval rating with whites is -15%, while it's +63% with non-whites.

e. Romney's numbers with seniors are underwhelming. He currently trails Obama among the more ancient set, 47%-45%, despite having a better favorable rating with the group (+13% vs. Obama's +8%).

That's traditionally a Republican bloc, and Romney needs to do better there.

f. The candidates are tied on the economy and job creation, 46%-46%. If Romney's going to win this election, he needs to do much better on this question. It's the reason why Republicans nominated him (other than the fact Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were the only alternatives).

If Romney can't win on the economy in this economy, then that's a testament to profound weakness as a candidate.

g. Obama leads on a smattering of issues -- taxes, foreign policy, education, Medicare, health care, terrorism, illegal immigration, and "making the country a better place to live."

Meanwhile, Romney leads on cutting government spending and helping small business.

The two are tied on the economy and "taking the country in the right direction."

h. Obama leads on a smattering of character traits -- intelligence, honesty, steadiness, experience, diligence, moral values, understanding American history, and keeping his promises.

Meanwhile, Romney leads on understanding the principles of capitalism.

OVERALL: When you look at internals, it seems that Obama's lead is much more substantial than 5%.

Having said that, if Romney can somehow put distance between himself and Obama on the economy, he can probably make up that gap.

The biggest question, though, is how much that gap has to do with the Democratic convention and the probable, ephemeral bounce from it.