Michigan: Obama takes 10% lead

A new EPIC-MRA survey might show why independent groups backing Mitt Romney pulled ads from Michigan recently.

Barack Obama has expanded his lead from 3% to 10%. Last month, the president led, 49%-46%, and now he's up 47%-37%.

Oddly, though, post-conventions, fewer voters say they've made up their minds.

A couple key stats:

a. Independents prefer Obama, 36%-27%, but 37% remain undecided. Even if Romney were to win the remaining indies by a big margin, it probably wouldn't be enough to overcome a 10% deficit, overall.

b. Men back Obama, 42%-40%, and women back him, 52%-36%. Romney's performance with men is especially rough, considering that he needs a big margin to overcome a partisan weakness with women. Nationally, he's been getting that strong lead with men, but not so in Michigan and not so in Ohio.

c. The big question is whether this is simply a convention bounce for Obama or indicative of a more sturdy consolidation behind him. The decision to pull pro-Romney ads suggests that his allies think it's the latter.

One more point -- when Romney has led in past Michigan polls (7 times), it's often been in EPIC-MRA surveys (4 times).

So it's tough to argue that EPIC-MRA is somehow unkind to Mitt.