Obama up 4% in new Florida poll

According to a new Washington Post survey, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney, 51%-47%, among likely voters in Florida -- a state that's leaned toward Mitt throughout the cycle.

This is a pretty good sample. It assumes 33% Democratic turnout, 32% Republican, and 31% independent.

In 2008, it was 37% Democratic, 34% Republican, and 29% independent, so I don't think GOP critics of polling have anything to complain about here.

Key stats among likely voters:

a. Obama's job approval rating is 53%-46%, which is identical to his number in WaPo's Ohio survey. He's also at 52%/47% among independents -- a group with whom he's struggled this election.

b. Obama picks up 97% of Democrats. That's a huge number in a state with a lot of conservative Democrats in the Panhandle. Romney wins 93% of Republicans.

The big number here, though, is Obama's 50%-46% lead among independents. Romney has consistently led Obama among indies in battleground after battleground (including Ohio) this cycle, so this is a very good number for the president.

c. On the economy, Obama nips Romney, 49%-48%, but as opposed to in Ohio where indies actually choose Obama on the economy, independents in Florida prefer Mitt on the economy, 50%-43%.

That's probably the difference between the two states, and why Ohio is looking worse and worse for Romney but Florida very winnable.

OVERALL: This is a good poll for Obama, but Florida is still very much a tossup. Obama currently leads by 2.5% in the RCP average of the state, and Romney has led in three surveys, post-Democratic convention.