Obama up by 5% in Colorado

A new Keating Research poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-44% lead over Mitt Romney in Colorado -- just a 1% change since August.

A couple things are helping Obama.

First, his favorable rating is 51%/47%, which isn't great but is 8% higher than Romney's.

Second, 48% of likely voters think the state is headed in the right direction; whereas, only 35% say it's headed in the wrong direction. That's good news for Obama.

As for the sample, it's actually very reasonable, considering this season of heavily-skewed samples that's currently plaguing the political atmosphere.

The firm sampled 36% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% unaffiliated voters.

If you look at the most important swing counties in Colorado, you'll find Republicans with a registration edge in almost every one*.

BUT... huge numbers are registered but unaffiliated, and they went heavily Democratic in 2008, and according to this poll, are going strongly Democratic again.

*(I recently dug up some figures on them from the Secretary of State's office -- Republicans have registration edges in Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Larimer counties, but Obama won all three in 2008).