Michael Barone notes that this year Republicans are running about even with 2010 exit polls in terms of the electorate's party ID -- a favorable omen, indeed, for the GOP.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen periodically estimates party identification on the basis of thousands of robocall interviews of likely voters.
His findings have been uncannily close to the exit polls. In the last quarter of 2008, his party ID numbers were 41 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican. The 2008 exit poll showed Democrats ahead in party ID by 39 to 32 percent.
In the third quarter of 2010, Rasmussen pegged party ID as tied at 35 percent. The 2010 exit poll showed it exactly the same.
The third quarter of 2012 is not yet over. But the Rasmussen party ID numbers for the second and third quarters combined are ominous for Obama's party: 34 percent Democratic, 36 percent Republican. Republicans are up only 3 percent from 2008, but Democrats are down 7 percent.
