A new Rasmussen survey shows Mitt Romney holding a solid, 51%-45% lead over Barack Obama in North Carolina.
a. Obama's job approval rating is 48%/51%, which isn't bad, but needs to be higher if he's going to win a traditionally red state.
b. Romney's favorable rating is a strong 54%/42%. It's pretty safe to say Romney is the heavy favorite in any state where his personal favorable rating exceeds Obama's job approval rating.
c. Romney leads on the economy, 52%-43%.
d. Romney leads on health care, 50%-47%.
e. Romney leads on national security, 48%-44%. Considering this is a red state, it's not terribly surprising, but foreign policy has been Obama's strongest category throughout the election.
f. Romney leads on taxes, 48%-45%.
g. Romney leads on energy, 47%-45.
h. Romney wins men by 11% and ties Obama among women.
i. Romney consolidates 93% of GOP voters, while Obama only picks up 83% of Democrats. Meanwhile, independents back Romney by 8%.
CONCLUSION: Romney leads by 4.8% in the RCP average of North Carolina polls, but keep in mind that average is affected by this poll. In other words, that 4.8% is partially so high because he's up 6% in this poll.
Nevertheless, it seems to be a real lead.
Since August, Romney has led in six polls of North Carolina, while Obama has led in two, and both of those surveys were PPP.