Tuesday, September 4, 2012

The Hill poll: Tough fundamentals for Obama

Pulse Opinion Research has a new poll of likely voters for The Hill that shows some pretty rocky numbers for Barack Obama.

Some key results:

a. Based on job performance, only 40% think Obama deserves reelection, while 54% think he doesn't.

That number is even worse among unaffiliated voters with 61% saying he doesn't deserve reelection.

But the most surprising number is this: 20% of Democrats don't think he deserves another term.

b. 52% think the country is in worse condition now than in 2008, while only 31% say it's in better shape. That's a -21% gap, and a very difficult number for any incumbent.

c. 51% of 18-39 year-olds don't think Obama deserves reelection, and that rises to 65% among seniors.

So why do these numbers look worse for the president than usual?

Well, most polls this cycle assume a big turnout advantage for Democrats, but The Hill's survey assumes a 36% Republican 34% Democratic, and 30% unaffiliated turnout.

Even if you think said-turnout advantage is too kind to Republicans, consider the president's underwhelming reelection numbers with Democrats and unaffiliated voters, and you can see why it's a troubling poll for the Obama team as it heads into the convention.