This is what they mean when they say an "exogenous" factor could shake up the race.
The U.S. economy grew at an even more sluggish pace in the April-June quarter than previously believed as farm production in the Midwest was reduced by a severe drought.
The Commerce Department says that the overall economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the spring, down from its previous estimate of 1.7 percent growth.
Meanwhile, via CNBC.
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in August fell by the most in 3-1/2 years, pointing to a sharp slowdown in factory activity even as a gauge of planned business spending rebounded.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3 percent increase instead of the previously reported 4.1 percent gain.
We'll see if these results affect the campaign narrative for more than a day, but you can bet they'll show up in the first debate.
But here's the big question -- have 50+% of voters already bought the argument that Obama has set the economy on the right path and just needs more time? If so, then they'd view this as a bump in the road; not evidence of failure or a failed plan.
Also, keep in mind -- early voting helps mitigate damage to Obama from future, potential exogenous shocks to the race like this one.