Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Washington Post: Obama up 8% in Virginia

A very healthy poll for Barack Obama, as The Washington Post shows him hopping to a 52%-44% lead among likely voters in Virginia.

Couple stats:

a. Obama's job approval is a robust, 52%-43%. Considering he won Virginia last time, that seems strong enough to carry it again.

On the economy, he's a bit worse at 51%-48%, but importantly, among registered voters, he leads Romney there, 47%-45%.

b. Obama's favorable rating is 57%/42%, while Romney's is just 47%/49%. That's a battleground route.

c. Obama seems to have closed -- even transcended -- the enthusiasm gap. 88% of his supporters say they'll "definitely" vote for him, while 82% of Romney supporters say the same about their guy.

d. Among registered voters, Obama leads on military spending, 50%-44%. That's actually a nice plus for the president, considering 70% call it "very important" to their vote.

e. Obama also leads on Medicaid (+18%), social issues (+20%), helping the middle class (+19%), women's issues (+22%), taxes (+3%), international affairs (+11%), and empathy (+17%).

f. In one of the more important questions, 33% say they've personally been contacted by a member of Obama's team, while 31% say a Romney supporter has contacted them. In other words, voter contact is about equal.

OVERALL: This is the most positive, non-PPP poll for Obama since March, and is about 5% better than the RCP lead of 2.8% for Obama. So this seems like an outlier, but nevertheless, you'd rather be in Obama's direction than Romney's here.