In his daily newsletter, the conservative writer, Ben Domenech, beseeches his brethren to cork the champagne a bit on yesterday's Pew Opinion poll showing a 4% Romney lead.
Please chill out about these Pew numbers, everyone.
First, anyone who thinks Democrats +10 – a Pew sample size just a month ago – was outright ridiculous as a frame for Election Day should think a Republican +5 sample size, their latest poll, is equally ridiculous.
These are two margins that have never happened before in the modern era and there is no sign either is going to happen this time around. That 15 point swing in party ID, lo and behold, has an effect.
I've been similarly critical of polls showing Dems holding huge turnout advantages (That Q survey of Florida showing Democrats at +9% turnout was particularly befuddling), and it cuts both ways.
Unrealistic samples are unrealistic samples are unrealistic -- whether they're +10% Dem or +5% Republican.