Florida: Obama 48% Romney 47%

A new Quinnipiac University/CBS/New York Times poll shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the partly cloudy state of Florida, 48%-47%.

On the face of it, this is a strong poll for Obama, but once again, make your own judgment about whether the turnout is predictive of what you'll see in the final analysis.

In 2008, Democrats had a 3% turnout advantage on Republicans in Florida. This poll suggests an 8% turnout advantage.

So your basic view of Florida hinges on this question -- do you think Democrats will have over twice the turnout margin of 2008? If so, you can confidently say Obama has a 1% lead. But if it's just a turnout advantage of 2008 margins or less, then Romney has a solid edge in the state.
a. Obama's approval rating is 49%/48%, which might be just enough to put him over the top, although I still think Florida will be tougher for him than most think.

b. Romney wins independents, 49%-44%. That's a smaller lead from what we've often seen, so it's something that might be of concern to the Romney team.

c. Obama leads among early voters, 50%-44%.

d. Obama has retaken a small lead on favorability, with 51%/46% viewing him favorably and 48%/47% viewing Romney favorably.

e. On empathy, Obama has reestablished his normal, big advantage. Currently, he's at +22% on empathy, while Romney's score is -2%.

f. Obama sits at +12% on leadership, while Romney is at +34%.

g. Obama picks up a 54%/43% honesty rating, while Romney is at 47%/47%. That's another point where Obama has consistently led, and it fits perfectly with his portrayal of Romney as a flip-flopper.

h. Romney barely wins on the economy, 49%-47%. That's dangerously close for Romney on his signature issue.

i. Voters prefer Obama on helping the middle class, 51%-44%.

j. Obama wins on Medicare, 50%-44%.

k. Obama edges Romney on taxes, 48%-47%.

l. Romney keeps his usual lead on the deficit, 53%-40%.

m. Obama keeps his usual lead on foreign policy, though it's down somewhat, 50%-44%.

n. Obama leads on education in the Jeb Bush is a Classroom Deity State, 53%-40%.

o.Obama leads slightly on terrorism, 49%-44%.

p. Voters think Romney is a more bipartisan figure, 50%-41%, and that's been a part of his closing argument.