Gallup releases its first survey of likely voters; not registered voters, and Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of Barack Obama, 49%-47%.
Zeke Miller explains why Gallup won't look pretty for Obama tomorrow, either.
The lead is likely to expand because Gallup averages together the last seven days of poll result — and today's results include two days of responses before last week's presidential debate rocketed Romney back into contention.
You know what this means?
1. Romney has now pulled ahead of Obama, nationally, in TPM's poll aggregator, 48.9%-46.1%. The aggregator averages national polls to deliver a score for each candidate.
2. Romney also leads by 0.4% in the RCP average, and the trend toward him is unmistakable.
3. Battleground polling is also looking healthier and healthier for Romney.
In Ohio, Obama's lead in the RCP average has fallen to just 1.7% -- an unthinkable number two weeks ago.
In Virginia, Obama's lead in the RCP average is just 0.3%.
In Florida, Romney actually leads in the RCP average by 0.7%.
In Colorado, Romney leads in the RCP average by 0.5%.
The takeaway is that every one of those states is now a genuine tossup, but Romney has the momentum everywhere. Put those two combinations together and you have the makings of a Romney win if the election were held tomorrow.
But it's not. There are two more debates and millions more to be spent.