Is Pennsylvania close?

Two, new polls show the race is within the margin of error in Pennsylvania -- a rather incredible development, if true.

But imbibe with caution.

First, Siena is out with a poll today showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by just 43%-40%, with 12% undecided and, therefore, seemingly open to Romney. That's a double-take number in a state where Obama is normally about double-digits.

What makes the horserace number even more surprising?

Romney's favorable rating is an awful 40%/49%, while Obama's sits at 49%/44%.

It's hard to imagine Romney winning a blue state where his favorability is at -9%, which is why it's so crucial that he continues to run a more positive, personal campaign.

Unfortunately, Siena doesn't release much about the sample, so we can't bet the farm or Roth IRA on this one.

So let's move to another poll of the state.

A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released yesterday has Obama up just 47%-45%, another margin of error number.

Even more surprising? Among those saying there's an "excellent" chance they'll vote, Romney has a 1% lead.

Now -- here's an internal that veers sharply from Siena's finding: Romney's favorability sits at 48%/42%, which is higher than Obama's at 50%/47%.

Thus, Siena and Susquehanna differ by a net 17% on candidate favorable ratings.

So what are we to make of all this?

1. Romney's favorability ratings are more discordant than Obama's.

There's a 15% difference between Romney's numbers in the two polls, but there's only a 2% difference for Obama in the polls.

That rightly suggests that the debate affected Romney's image more than it did Obama's. Thus, Romney is still in the process of being defined, which means the great tug-of-war over his image hasn't tugged its last.

2. Wait for things to settle. Obama leads by 6% in the RCP average of the state, and Romney has only led twice in the state since last summer.