Monday, October 22, 2012

Obama won debate, but did Romney win votes?

One counter-intuitive phenomenon we've been seeing is that  voters consistently think Barack Obama won the second debate, but don't seem much likelier to vote for him.

In fact, post-debate focus groups showed that if there was any movement at all, it was to Romney -- despite Obama's win.

Now look at today's Monmouth University/Survey USA survey.
In the survey, 7% of likely voters said the debate changed their decision, but that group now favors Romney, 57%-32%.

One lesson this might be teaching us? That undecided voters, true to history, are swayed more by the challenger than the incumbent, and are starting to make up their minds in the challenger's direction.

That's, obviously, bad news for Obama.

One more note about the survey, which shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama, 48%-45%, among likely voters: Mitt's domination with independents is remarkable.

a. Romney leads Obama with indies, 52%-33%.

b. Romney's fav rating with indies is +22%, while Obama's is -15%.

c. Indies prefer Romney on the economy, 57%-34%.

d. Indies prefer Romney on Social Security and Medicare, 52%-33%.

e. Indies prefer Romney on the budget and debt, 57%-29%.

f. Indies prefer Romney on foreign policy, 49%-39%.

Now, does Romney really lead by those huge margins with indies? Probably not. But it's yet another data point showing just how well he's doing with indies -- a data point reflecting his continual dominance with independents.