OHIO: Why is the GOP outperforming its '08 numbers?

That's a question no one can answer, but the answer means everything.

CNN's Peter Hamby reports that, statewide, the GOP seems to be doing much better in '12 than in '08, and in some Ohio counties like heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County, Republicans have reason to cheer early voting numbers.

In Cuyahoga, only 12% of registered voters are Republican, but ballot numbers suggest 22% of early voters in the county are Republican.

Obviously, that's a good number for the GOP, and across the state, early voting looks stronger for Republicans than in 2008.

But the big question is -- why?

There are three, possible answers.

1. The GOP has vastly improved its early voting operation.

If that's what's driving the better numbers, then it's sort of meaningless, because cannibalization is taking place. If voter Republican X casts his/her ballot two weeks before that election vs. on election day, it doesn't matter. That's still one vote.

So this explanation suggests that the improving numbers don't mean much for the ultimate results.

2. Romney actually is performing very well.

The other possibility, of course, is that stronger, GOP early voting numbers than 2008 indicate Romney is trending well -- or, at least, better than McCain, who lost the state by 4%. 

This theory is buttressed by the RNC's suggestion that, according to its modeling, unaffiliated early voters are trending GOP by almost 6%.

Compare that with 2008 when independent voters supported Obama by 8%, and the Romney team has reason to be of good cheer.

3. Both (1) and (2) are at work.

The third possibility is that early voting is looking better for Romney than McCain because of a better turnout operation and because he's actually performing better.

This isn't as optimistic for Republicans as #2 or as pessimistic as #2.

It's the middle-bear explanation, and based on gut instinct, probably the most accurate.