Monday, October 29, 2012

Poll: Pocketbook voters breaking for Romney

A new Politico/George Washington University poll shows Barack Obama with a 49%-48% lead over Mitt Romney, but the following might be the most important internal:

Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 to 41 percent.

One of the longest-standing axioms is that voters tend to vote their pocketbook, and that could be particularly the case in these economic times. If so, a 15% lead is pretty important.

There are loads of other important internals in the survey -- some with good news for both candidates.

Good news for Obama: He's gained 3% since the last survey in the horserace number and retaken the lead on leadership. Women are also coming home, as he now has an 11% lead with the group.

Obama leads on taxes (+2%), foreign policy (+9%), Medicare (+6%), standing up for the middle class (+13%), sharing values (+3%), and leadership (+3%).

Good news for Romney: He's got an edge on enthusiasm. Among those who are "extremely likely" to vote, Romney leads Obama by 9%.

Romney also leads on key economic measures: The budget (+12%), jobs (+5%), the economy (+5%), and getting things done (+4%).

He's also up 10% among independents -- as befitting his current trend of winning the key group by double digits.