Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Poll: Romney way behind in New Hampshire

This looks like an outlier, but it's a very tough poll, nevertheless, for Mitt Romney.

A WMUR survey, released yesterday, showed Barack Obama leading Romney, 52%-37%, in New Hampshire and, impressively, also holding a 16% lead in with independents (the state, btw, is crawling with indies. They made up 45% of voters in 2008).

UNH pollster Andy Smith said there has been a significant shift in which party is energized.

"Right now, the voters most interested in the election are Democrats," Smith said. "That is a good sign for the president because you really have to get energized, angry, motivated voters to get to the polls, and right now, that's the Democratic Party."

Obama is currently up 6% in the RCP average of the state -- a heady lead but a far cry from this. Nevertheless, it's useful to note that Obama only led by 5%, 3%, and 4% in the last three WMUR surveys, so it's not like this poll has a history of showing massive Obama leads.

One more note: this is the biggest lead for Obama in the state over the past two years.