UPDATE: An RNC official tells me categorically that Nevada staff isn't being shifted to Ohio.
Major Garrett, with two bits of info that are getting buzz today -- it seems that the Romney team might be functionally acknowledging Nevada is out of reach, while the Obama campaign might be somewhat bearish on Florida.
Romney and Republican National Committee operatives won’t say it publicly but concede privately that Nevada is out of reach—largely because of Hispanic voters and Obama’s superior ground operations.
.... In the closing weeks, Romney and Obama will shift operatives to Ohio. Obama has already begun to quietly suggest to field organizers in Florida that their time would be better spent in the Buckeye State. Republicans are doing the same with field staff in Nevada.
Obama has led in Nevada throughout the year (the last time Romney led there was April!), and it was always going to be very tough for Romney to overcome the Hispanic vote. Jon Ralston has been assiduously charting the early voting and absentee numbers, and things look bullish for Obama.
As for Florida, the state has leaned Republican this entire cycle -- even when Obama took the lead, post-convention, few experts believed he'd actually score the upset on November 6. He only squeaked by in 2008 with every conceivable advantage -- from the Bush legacy, to voter enthusiasm, to McCain's awful campaign. It was always going to be difficult to pull it off again.
Of course, trading Florida for Nevada is a good trade for Romney, but Florida is closer, and Romney will continue to have to pour money into the state to clinch it.
One more intriguing extract -- this from CNN's John King on Virginia.
Top Obama advisers are more worried than they were just weeks ago, and some privately say it does look more likely that Romney will eke out a Virginia win.
But King notes a statistic that I continue to think will keep VA in play for Obama, and one that gives him the upper-hand -- there's been a 19% increase in Latinos registered to vote since 2008.
Yes, Hispanic enthusiasm is much lower this year, but early voting helps mitigate the ills of low enthusiasm -- not eliminate, but again, mitigate.
