Monday, October 22, 2012
A good poll for Barack Obama supporters, as the president leads Mitt Romney 50%-45% in Ohio, according to a new CBS/Quinnipiac survey that's being held fervently bandied about by Democrats this morning.
Some key stats:
a. Both candidates wrap up 93% of their respective party's vote. Remember the whole idea of Reagan Democrats? Well, they seem to be going Democratic again. Romney only wins 5% of Democrats. That's a bad sign in a state like Ohio.
b. Romney wins independents, 49%-42%. That's Mitt's counterpunch to his weak performance with Democrats.
c. Women are fueling Obama's lead. He leads by 15% with females, while males pick Romney by 7%.
That lead among women is much stronger than in 2008 when Obama won women by only 8%, so he's about double that this go-around. Meanwhile, Obama won Ohio men by 3% in 2008, and now Romney leads by 7%.
Clearly, there are more gender gap-y things going on in this poll.
d. Obama is getting 29% of evangelicals. That's good news for him, because it's nearly equal his 30% mark in 2008.
e. Obama leads with the early vote, 54%-39%.
Note, though, that he's up 24% with female early voters and he's also up 4% with male early voters. That suggests the bulk of early voting comes directly from the Democratic base.
Why? Because Obama's margins are so much bigger than polling of all likely voters in the state.
f. Romney's biggest problem lies in his favorability rating, which is 46%/48% for -2%. Meanwhile, Obama's is at 51%/45%. That's an 8% gap.
The good news for Mitt is that he's at +8% with indies, while Obama is at -5% with the group.
g. Obama's approval rating is 50%/47%, which just meets the threshold for an incumbent winning. His approval with indies, though, is -13%.
h. GOP has the enthusiasm edge.
52% of Republicans say they're more enthusiastic than normal while 40% of Democrats say the same and 35% of independents agree.
Romney needs more indie enthusiasm, considering he has a solid lead with them.
i. Obama crushes Romney on empathy with a +23% score, while Romney sits at just -5%. This is also a rare metric where Obama does better with indies than Romney.
j. Romney once again has overcome the leadership deficit. Obama is currently at +18% on leadership, while Romney is at +32%. Throughout this cycle, the president has led on the question, but Romney's been surging on the issue since the first debate.
k. The candidates are tied on the economy, 48%-48%. If Romney is going to win Ohio, he has to win on the economy, and he seems to be trending in that direction. Last month, Obama led by 6% on the question.
Notably, though, indies favor Romney on the economy, 53%-40%.
l. Obama wins on foreign policy, 50%-43%.
m. Obama leads on taxes, 51%-43%. Dare I say it again, it's just remarkable how consistently Obama has taken this advantage away from the GOP candidate.
Even indies prefer Obama on taxes, 47%-44%!
n. As usual, Romney leads Obama on the deficit, 51%-43%, and sports a massive 26% lead with indies on the issue.
o. Obama leads on helping the middle class, 54%-41%. He's had a consistent lead on the question, and ultimately, it could prove to be his trump card.
p. Across the board -- men, women, indies, whites, blacks, protestants, catholics -- all thought Obama won the second debate.
Now a little context...
a. Yes, this is a self-identify survey, but a +9% Democratic turnout edge isn't what we're likely to see on election day. In fact, that suggests a slightly better Democratic turnout than 2008 (when it was +8%).
The GOP has a much better turnout operation this year than it did in 2008, so it's tough to see how Dems actually improve on their '08 turnout, which this poll suggests.
b. Obama currently leads by 2.2% in the RCP average of polls, which is, from what I've heard from GOP sources, about the state of things on the ground in Ohio.
[Photo: White House/Pete Souza]