Romney keeps edge in tracking polls, but falls short of 50%

Lots of new polls today, but at the national level, Mitt Romney averages a 2% advantage in today's tracking polls.

IBD/ITP: Romney 49% Obama 44%.

Rasmussen: Romney 48% Obama 47%

Gallup: Romney 48% Obama 48%.

Obviously, the race has trended toward Romney the past week, but notice that he doesn't hit 50% in any of those polls.

Using RCP's poll tracker, you have to travel back to February to find Romney hitting 50% in a head-to-head matchup with Obama.

Even more surprising, over the past two years, he's only hit 50% twice.

In September alone, Barack Obama hit 50% eleven times.

Now, this isn't to say those numbers are a guarantee of future performance. There are quite a few reasons why an incumbent would hit 50% more than a challenger over the span of two years.

But nevertheless, it's a sign of how relatively stable Barack Obama's support has been over the past two years in head-to-head matchups, and a reminder that Romney needs to really upend the order of things to win this. This past week shows he's upended them, but can he hit 50% once the bounce fades?