Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Romney up huge with independents


Fueling his current polling surge, Mitt Romney's numbers with indies are just getting remarkably good.

a. IBD/ITP poll released today: Romney 52% Obama 34%.

b. Pew poll, released yesterday: Romney 46% Obama 42%.

c. Politico/GW poll, released yesterday: Romney 51% Obama 35%.

d. CNN, released last week: Romney 49% Obama 41%.

e. National Journal, released October 3: Romney 49% Obama 41%.

Now having said that, Romney has done well this entire cycle with independents, but not enough to overcome turnout models that suggested much, much higher Democratic turnout.

But now he's killing it so soundly that it's enough to overcome higher Democratic turnout. In fact, in ARG's poll of Ohio today, Dems are sampled at +9% over Republicans, but Romney wins indies by 20%, which is enough to inch ahead, overall, 48%-47%.

Some of this is a debate bounce, but as I've said, one of the most under-reported stories this cycle has been Romney's continual lead with independents. That always assured this would be a close election, regardless.

In fact, Barack Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. Romney is easily hitting that number in the most recent batch of polls.