Monday, October 29, 2012

Scarborough fires shot at Nate Silver's model

On Morning Joe today, Joe Scarborough took a shot at analyst Nate Silver's "model", which has been the subject of controversy this cycle for continually projecting that Barack Obama will win.

"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6% chance that the president's going to win. Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73.6% -- they think they have a 50.1% chance of winning.

.... Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue [that] they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops, and microphones for the next ten days, because they're jokes."

For the record, Silver's model currently gives Obama a 74.6% chance of winning, and at no point has suggested that Romney even has a 50% chance of winning.

But most controversially, BuzzFeed revealed this year that the Obama campaign offered, in exchange for a confidentiality agreement, the former Daily Kos blogger "thousands of its own internal polls" in 2008.

That, along with Silver's self-proclaimed support for Obama in 2008 and continually bullish take on his chances, has made some conservatives leery of Silver's work this cycle, and apparently, Scarborough has joined the ranks of the leery. 

For his part, Silver correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2008's presidential election -- missing only Indiana.