Some key Virginia counties see early voting dip

Charlie Cook has an awesome, early vote spreadsheet that measures 2008 turnout in Virginia vs. 2012 turnout.

Even cooler, he includes the Obama vs. McCain '08 numbers so you can quickly see whether Democratic or Republican counties are experiencing a jump in early voting.

All of these comparisons are between October 26, 2008 vs. October 26. 2012.

So... what does the data look like?

Well, let's look at the 10 most populous counties, according to 2010 census data.

1. Fairfax County = early voting down 12.32%. Obama scored 61% of the vote in 2008.

2. Virginia Beach City = early voting down 4.19%. Obama scored 49.46% in 2008.

3. Prince William County = early voting up 3.76%. Obama scored 58% in 2008.

4. Chesterfield County = early voting down 1.42%. Obama lost and scored 46% of vote in 2008.

5. Loudoun County = early voting up 17.89%. Obama won with 54% of vote in 2008.

6. Henrico County = early voting up 5.27%. Obama won with 56% of the vote in 2008.

7. Norfolk City = early voting down -.85%. Obama won with 71.68% of the vote in 2008.

8. Chesapeake City = early voting up 7.82%. Obama won with 50.64% of the vote in 2008.

9. Arlington County = early voting down 18.67%. Obama won with 72% of vote in 2008.

10. Richmond City = early voting down 8.33%. Obama won with 61% of the vote in 2008.

Now let's put some meat on 'em bones.

The biggest red flag for Obama is that Fairfax County -- the most populous -- is at  negative 12.32% turnout, and Obama scored 61% of the vote in 2008.

First, he probably won't get that margin this time (Romney is a stronger candidate for Northern Virginia folks than McCain) and second, turnout is down so far, which could cut into his raw votes even further.

The other, two counties in the top 10 that have the biggest drops? Arlington and Richmond City, which went strongly for Obama in 2008.

Loudoun County is up 17.89%, but Obama's margins were smaller there in '08, and many think Romney could battle Obama to a draw there.

Now... what's up with the McCain Counties (i.e. the GOP counties?). In 57 of the 85 counties that McCain won in 2008, turnout is up. Now, obviously, not all counties are created equally. Chesterfield, for example, is the state's fourth largest county, voted McCain, and is experiencing a small dip in early voting. But nevertheless, 67% of solidly GOP counties are seeing a rise in early voting.

That's tentatively good news for Romney, but the bigger story here is that Fairfax, Arlington, and Richmond City are experiencing big early voting drops, and all were major sources of raw votes for Obama.