Survey USA: Florida tied

A new Survey USA poll shows Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in a Florida dead heat, 47%-47%.

All the internals look familiar -- Romney leads with indies, Obama leads with young voters, Romney's up with wealthier voters, Obama's up with poorer voters.

The more interesting question is whether Florida is truly tied, or whether it's a genuine tossup.

A CNN poll yesterday showed Romney up just 1%, and now he only leads by 1.3% in the RCP average of the state.

But my hunch (and that of most everyone who follows this closely) is that Romney is holding a real lead in the state, much like Obama does in Ohio -- even though the RCP average in both states is within the margin of error.

Romney has led in 15 of 20 Florida polls this month, just as Obama has led in all but four Ohio polls since October began (though he only leads by 1.9% in the RCP average).

Privately, you hear Democrats talk more about picking off Virginia than Florida these days, and Republicans also seem to be more nervous about VA than FL.