Thursday, October 18, 2012

Survey USA: Obama up 3% in Ohio

There are some funky internals in Survey USA's new poll of Ohio, showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 3%, but some of those odd numbers seem abnormally favorable to Mitt and some to Barack, so it seems to be an equal opportunity offender.

To wit: The poll has Romney winning 11% of blacks (about 9% more than he'll actually get), and has Obama winning 32% of evangelicals (about 10% more than he'll actually get).

Thus, I wouldn't stake my retirement fund on this poll, but I also wouldn't dismiss its topline result, which probably isn't subject to the perils of polling subgroups with small sample sizes.