Friday, November 9, 2012

Gender gap jumps nationally, in swing states


In Tuesday's presidential vote, the gender gap jumped 6 percentage points from its 2008 levels.

In 2008, it was 12%, but in 2012, it grew to 18%.

But it didn't rise on Tuesday because women fled the GOP (Romney did 1% better with women than McCain), but because men fled Obama. Obama did 8% worse among men this time.

Thus, the gender gap grew, thanks to a shift in men from 2008.

But, of course, it's helpful to look at the gender gap at the swing state level. The gender gap grew in six swing states and fell in three swing states.

Meanwhile, Romney might have made gains with women, nationally, but he did slightly worse than McCain among women in the must-win states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Unfortunately for Romney, those were the three most important states in the nation.

However, he did better than McCain with men in each of those swing states, which narrowed the overall margins, even though it helped grow the gender gap.

So then, here are the swing states where Romney did better with women than McCain: Colorado, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada,

Here are the swing states where Romney did worse with women than McCain: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia.

And, finally, based on exit polls, here are the swing states with the biggest gender gaps in Romney vs. Obama.

1. Iowa 28%

2. New Hampshire 20%

3. Wisconsin 19%

4. Ohio 18%

5. Nevada 17%

6. Virginia and Florida 13%

8. North Carolina 11%

9. Colorado 8%


That Iowa number is just stunning, while the Colorado number is much less severe than many predicted. Meanwhile, North Carolina's gender gap shrunk substantially from 2008-levels.

Below are the specs for each state, as well as a comparison between the gender gap in 2008 and the gender gap in 2012.


COLORADO:

Women: Obama 51% Romney 48%

Men: Obama 51% Romney 46%

Gender gap in 2012: 8%.
Gender gap in 2008: 16%.

Interesting number -- more women actually picked Romney than men. Women didn't prefer the GOP nominee in a single swing state in 2008.

Also, the gender gap was MUCH less pronounced this year than in 2008 when it was a stark 16%.

More surprising? Men supported McCain in Colorado by 1%, but Romney lost men by 5%.


FLORIDA:

Women: Obama 53% Romney 46%

Men: Romney 52% Obama 46%

Gender gap in 2012: 13%
Gender gap in 2008: 1%


IOWA:

Women: Obama 59% Romney 40%.

Men: Romney 53% Obama 44%.

Gender gap in 2012: 28%!!!
Gender gap in 2008: 9%

Romney got crushed with women in Iowa. In 2008, McCain lost among women by 12%. Romney lost by 19%. Oof.


NEVADA:

Women: Obama 57% Romney 41%.

Men: Romney 49% Obama 48%.

Gender gap in 2012: 17%
Gender gap in 2008: 7%


NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Women: Obama 58% Romney 42%.

Men: Romney 51% Obama 47%.

Gender gap in 2012: 20%.
Gender gap in 2008: 23%.


NORTH CAROLINA:

Women: Obama 51% Romney 49%.

Men: Romney 54% Obama 45%.

Gender gap in 2012: 11%.
Gender gap in 2008: 24%.

Romney ate into the gender gap here, big-time. McCain lost by 11% with women; Romney lost by only 2%.

Good thing, too, because women made up a whopping 56% of North Carolina voters on Tuesday.

OHIO:

Women: Obama 55% Romney 44%.

Men: Romney 52% Obama 45%.

Gender gap in 2012: 18%.
Gender gap in 2008: 5%.


VIRGINIA:

Women: Obama 54% Romney 45%.

Men: Romney 51% Obama 47%.

Gender gap in 2012: 13%.
Gender gap in 2008: 3%.


WISCONSIN:

Women: Obama 57% Romney 42%.

Men: Romney 51% Obama 47%.

Gender gap in 2012: 19%.
Gender gap in 2008: 14%.