Monday, November 12, 2012

Insiders rank the 2016 prospects

National Journal puts out its first poll of GOP and Demcoratic insiders, ranking the 2016 field.

Here's the list of whom Republican insiders put at the top of the list

1. Marco Rubio 40%

2. Jeb Bush 27%

3. Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum 9%

5. Chris Christie 8%

6. Bobby Jindal 3%

7. Susana Martinez 2%

Here's the list of whom Democratic insiders put at the top of the GOP list:

1. Jeb Bush 47%

2. Chris Christie 28%

3. Marco Rubio 13%

4. Rick Santorum and Susana Martinez 2%

6. Bobby Jindal and Paul Ryan 1%

A couple things to note:

a. Look at how low Paul Ryan sits on both lists. He did a fine job as Veep running-mate, but clearly didn't set himself up as the undisputed front-runner for 2016.

b. Dems picked Jeb; Republicans picked Rubio. The former wax fulsome in their praise of Jeb, but Dems tend to overestimate conservative love for Jeb and most their praise is coupled with something predictably squishy like "and he's a moderate, too!"

c. Christie is #2 on the Dem list, but look at how low he dips on the GOP list -- possibly because of Bear Hug-gate. Even Rick Santorum inches him out!

d. New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez once again makes a "top" list. Her convention speech, overwhelming popularity in her home state (most popular gov in country), and ability to connect with Latinos put her squarely in the conversation.