Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Midwesterners, minorities top prospective GOP field

Politico has a fun, new read on the 2016 presidential race, hinting that nearly every Republican with more than 20 Twitter followers is interested in a run.

The most intriguing to me, particularly because he's reported to have "expressed interest"?

Newly-elected Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

He was considered a pretty strong 2012 presidential possibility, but ultimately opted out of a run around the same time that other strong contenders passed (early 2011 when Obama looked especially strong). He's got strong cred with social conservatives, economic conservatives, and Rust Belt voter, and the whole Congressional liability thing will be solved because he's now a governor.

Also reportedly interested? The Midwestern governor, Scott Walker.

Also possibly interested? The Midwestern congressman, Paul Ryan.

Also reportedly interested? The Midwestern Senators John Thune and Rob Portman.

Also reportedly interested? The Midwestern governor, John Kasich.

As I strained (painfully) to note, all those names hail from the Midwest -- the geographic holy grail.

Moving to the next batch on the list...

Reportedly interested? Hispanic Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval.

Reportedly interested? Hispanic Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

Possibly interested? Hispanic New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez.

All three are Hispanics -- the demographic holy grail.

Moving to the next batch on the list....

Michele Bachmann (??), Kelly Ayotte, and Bobby Jindal -- none of those is a white male.

By my count, the only white males who made the list and weren't from the Midwest were Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, and Bob McDonnell. And two of those are reruns that are probably doomed (Santorum, Perry).

So what's the big conclusion?

12 of 18 names on the list are either Midwestern governors or members of an electoral minority.That bodes pretty well for the GOP.