Thursday, November 8, 2012

Romney's Pennsylvania play

Mitt Romney famously came up short in Pennsylvania after what, in retrospect, was confirmed as a pseudo-desperate play for it.

But he actually did cut pretty solidly into Obama's advantages both in the Philadelphia suburbs (he narrowly flipped Chester County and Berks County) and everywhere else.

Bucks County: Obama only won by 1.2%; whereas he won by 8% in 2008.

Montgomery County: Obama won by 14%; whereas he won by 21% in 2008.

Chester County: With 99.6% in, Obama trails Romney by 0.5%; whereas in 2008, Obama won it by 9%.

Lehigh County: Obama won by 8%; whereas, he won by 16% in 2008.

Berks County: Romney won by 0.6%; whereas, Obama won it by 10% in 2008.

Northampton County: Obama won by 4.5%; whereas, Obama won it by 12% in 2008.

Moving out of eastern Pennsylvania, Romney also flipped some counties in the rest of the state.

Centre County, appropriately, sits smack dab in the center of the state, and Romney took it by 0.1% - the smallest of margins. In 2008, Obama won it by...12%.

Tiny Elk County went from a 5% Obama win in 2008 to a 16% Romney win on Tuesday. Cambria County went from a 1% Obama win in 2008 to an 18% Romney win in 2012.

In all, Romney flipped 6 counties from 2008, while Obama flipped 0.

In fact, Romney won counties that George W. Bush didn't in the much closer 2004 contest -- Romney took three southwestern counties that Bush lost in 2004. Further, Romney took more counties than Bush did in either 2000 or 2004, even though Bush ran better, overall, against Gore and Kerry.

The truth is that Romney actually did better in Pennsylvania than many ever thought he would. That didn't justify a huge campaign there, but they didn't run a huge campaign there.