Thursday, December 6, 2012

2016: Rubio, Clinton lead

Public Policy Polling puts out a new poll of national GOP presidential primary race that finds, as expected, a pretty tight field.

1. Marco Rubio 18%

2. Chris Christie 14%

3. Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan 12%

5. Mike Huckabee 11%

6. Condoleezza Rice 8%

7. Sarah Palin and Rand Paul 7%

9. Rick Santorum 4%

A couple things:

a. Gender: Condi does twice as well with women as with men. Chris Christie and Marco Rubio do better with men than women, and Paul Ryan does better with women.

Polling, thus far, has been limited, but Ryan does seem to perform better with women than men.

There isn't much of a gender gap among the rest of the GOP candidates.

b. Age. Rubio wins middle-aged voters and senior citizens, while Christie nips him among GOP voters who are 18-45 years old. Ideological-generation divide?

c. Overall, Paul Ryan scores pretty well, but it's clear that the vice-presidential thing didn't turn him into the heir apparent. Instead, it seems to have been about as effective as it was for John Edwards in 2004.

And on the Democratic side, it's a predictable blowout for Hillary Clinton.

1. Hillary Clinton 61%

2. Joe Biden 12%

3. Andrew Cuomo 5%

4. Elizabeth Warren 4%

5. Martin O'Malley 2%

6. Brian Schweitzer, Deval Patrick, and Mark Warner 1%

There's really no point in going into internals on the Democratic side, because Hillary blows out everyone, and except for Joe Biden, name ID is so low for the rest of the bunch that comparisons are meaningless.

But here's the big surprise -- when it comes to NET favorability among ALL voters, Chris Christie and Condoleezza Rice are essentially in a three-way tie with Hillary Clinton.

Net FAVS among all voters:

1. Chris Christie and Condi Rice +22%

3. Hillary Clinton +21%

4. Marco Rubio +8%

5. Joe Biden +2%

6. Jeb Bush EVEN

7. Mike Huckabee and Paul Ryan -1%

9. Elizabeth Warren -2%

10. Rand Paul -6%

11. Mark Warner and Deval Patrick -7%

13. Rick Santorum and Andrew Cuomo -10%

15. Brian Schweitzer and Martin O'Malley -12%

17. Sarah Palin -23%.