Here's San Antonio mayor Julian Castro on Charlie Rose's show this week, offering three reasons why Texas will be competitive at the presidential level in 6-8 years.
Two are undeniable -- demographics and migration patterns.
As Castro notes, Texas has been a place of economic refuge for many Californians and more Democratic populations from other states. That, in turn, shapes and often changes the political dynamics in the state.
It's a good point.
States like North Carolina have primarily become competitive because of a heavy influx of out-of-staters who bring different political ideologies to the table.
And Texas has been a massive sanctuary for many out-of-staters during this economic time of woe, so it's understandable -- beyond even Hispanic growth -- why its political environment is changing.
"I think that within the next 6-8 years that Texas is going to be a competitive state, perhaps a purple state.... there are three things that are making it competitive.
First, the demographic changes -- in the last ten years, Latinos accounted for 65% of the growth, and their electoral impact is growing.
Secondly, because Texas has done well during this downturn, you have tons of people who have been moving in from California, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, other places that are having a moderating influence on the state.
And then the third is that the Republicans have just gone off the rails, and they're losing the business community little-by-little."
You can watch the video here -- salient part comes about 14 minutes in, although the whole thing is interesting if you're new to Castro. He's got a big career ahead of him, and you could easily see him as a Democratic Veeper in '16.
[Hat tip: FrontBurner]