Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Farleigh Dickinson releases a national poll of registered voters, measuring both name recognition and favorability of the leading, Republican 2016 prospects.
1. Chris Christie 55%/20% for +35%.
He gets a +41% from Republicans, +38% with indies, and +30% with Democrats.
2. Marco Rubio 46%/21% for +25%.
He gets +69% from Republicans, +16% with indies, and -21% with Democrats.
3. Bobby Jindal 45%/28% for +23%.
He picks up +60% from Republicans, +10% with indies, and -30% with Democrats.
4. Jeb Bush 32%/30% for +2%.
He gets +44% from Republicans, -6% with indies, and -35% with Democrats.
5. Rick Santorum 31%/37% for -6%.
He gets +42% with Republicans, -10% from indies, and -53% with Democrats.
A few comments.
1. Christie has the broadest appeal with a +30% among Dems that's just unreal. But remember, this is a national poll, so quite a few Democrats likely see him in light of his Obama hug; not his battles with the unions, so that's probably an artificially inflated number.
2. Rubio is much more popular with Republicans than Christie. Again, Christie seems to be reaping crossover rewards, but Rubio is far more popular in the GOP right now with a net approval that's 28 percentage points higher than Christie's within the party.
We could have the makings of a Rubio vs. Christie, Conservative vs. Moderate battle for the nomination.
3. Jeb Bush is still overwhelmed by the Bush name, and I'm not sure he can ever overcome that.
He's got to convince Republicans that he's electable and until the country has a good chance to see him, they'll define him by his last name. And the catch is that the country won't have a good chance to see him unless he wins the nomination, and even then, can you really transform perceptions in a few months' time?
Hillary could start running "Bush is still a Bush" ads in January 2016 to further define him after sewing up her Democratic nomination in January.
4. With Mitt Romney, Republicans got a chance to see what it was like to nominate a guy with negative favorable ratings. Rick Santorum would extend that opportunity in 2016.
4. Why doesn't Paul Ryan show up in the poll? That's a pretty big sin of omission there.