Monday, December 31, 2012

Hillary destroys Biden on key metric

It's fruitless to compare Hillary Clinton with her lesser known rivals for 2016 since their name ID is so low, but with Joe Biden's huge name ID, a Clinton vs. Biden comparison is meaningful.

And it doesn't look pretty for Biden.

In a new CNN poll, measuring Democrats' attitudes toward '16 candidates, 65% said they were "very likely" to support Hillary in 2016. Only 26% said the same about Biden.

Further, 21% of Democrats said they were "not very likely" to support Biden, while just 8% said the same about Hillary.

So -- to break those results down: There's a +57% gap for Hillary Clinton between her "very likely" and "not very likely" numbers, and only a +5% gap for Biden.

Meanwhile, moving to the GOP side, Paul Ryan sports the best spread between "very likely" and "not very likely" among GOP voters.

His "very likely" number is the highest of all GOP possibilities at 32%, while his "not very likely" is lowest at 12%. That's a +20% gap for Ryan.

Marco Rubio stands at +11%. Chris Christie, meanwhile, is at just +2%.

Interestingly, those are the only three Republican guys with a positive gap.

19%  of Republicans say they are "very likely" to support Rand Paul, while 25% say they're "not very likely."

Jeb Bush does even worse. 13% say they're "very likely" to support him, while 23% say they're not.

Finally, Rick Santorum fares poorest with 10% saying they're "very likely" to support him and 28% turning their faces from him.

Here, then, are the top GOP and Democratic candidates when comparing "very likely" support with "not very likely support."


1. Hillary Clinton +57%

2. Joe Biden +5%

3. Elizabeth Warren -10%

4. Andrew Cuomo -14%

5. Deval Patrick -21%

6. Brian Schweitzer -22%


1. Paul Ryan +20%

2. Marco Rubio +11%

3. Chris Christie +2%

4. Rand Paul -6%

5. Jeb Bush -10%

6. Rick Santorum -18%