Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Romney's rural Ohio woes

Plenty have noted that white voters in Ohio just didn't turn out in big enough numbers for Mitt Romney to win the state.

Saleno Zito notes that it wasn't a white, suburban problem; it was a white, rural problem.

Romney’s white-vote problem was nowhere more glaring than in Ohio, according to [Lara] Brown. She compared exit polls from 2012 and 2004, when Republicans won the state during George W. Bush’s re-election.

“The percentage of rural voters in the electorate declined by 6 percentage points, while the percentage of urban voters remained the same in both elections,” she said, adding that the number of suburban voters increased by 6 percentage points.

“What is interesting is that Romney did not have a problem with suburban voters,” said Brown. “Romney outperformed Obama in Ohio with suburban whites. Bush lost those voters to Kerry, 49-51, while Romney beat Obama, 51-47.

“So, if Obama sees no increase in urban voters over Kerry in Ohio and loses suburban voters, the problem points to the rural voter just not showing up.”