Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Swing state Hispanics are bullish on country's direction, government

Here are a few interesting bits from Resurgent Republic's new poll of Hispanics in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

1. Hispanics in swing states are substantially more hopeful about the country's direction.

49% of Florida's Hispanics think the country is on the right track, 63% in Colorado, 55% in New Mexico, and 60% in Nevada.

Compare that with the country's mood among ALL voters: Only 39% think the country is on the right track, while 53% think it's on the wrong track, according to the RCP average.

2. Hispanics in swing states are, on average, bullish on bigger government.

50% of Hispanics in Florida, 60% in Colorado, 61% in New Mexico, and 60% in Nevada think the government should "do more to solve problems and help meet needs of people."

Meanwhile, just 40%, 30%, 34%, and 35%, respectively, say the government should do less.

In theory, that means Romney should have had a shot at roughly that percentage in those states, but he fell short of the "less government" number in every state, meaning that there was a sizable slice of Hispanics who agreed with some conservative philosophy but nevertheless voted for Obama.

That being said, Republicans have some hope on another question -- Hispanics are split much more closely on whether the government should do more to promote fairness and equality or to promote opportunity.

3. Hispanics in swing states prefer more government spending to stimulate the economy than cutting taxes or reducing regulations.

Once again, the traditional Democratic model picks up the support of 52%, 52%, 55%, and 53% of Hispanics, respectively, in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Still, there's reason for some GOP hope. Those aren't blowout numbers, and if you move to the next question, Hispanics in those swing states do think taxes and regulations are too high for small businesses.

Of course, the question is one of priority, and Hispanics still tend to prefer government spending as a means of stimulating the economy.

OVERALL: The poll confirms something I've been writing about for awhile -- it's just a huge myth and baseless GOP talking point that Hispanics' philosophy of government lines up more with Republicans than Democrats.

In both this and other polls, Hispanics are much more likely to support a more activist government.

And strikingly, in this poll, they're also more likely to call themselves -- by double digits -- "pro-choice" on abortion than "pro-life" in Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. Hispanics in New Mexico, though, are more likely to call themselves "pro-life."